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Monday, November 01, 2004

2008 Election Prediction

No, that's not a typo, I'm really getting in an early prediction for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Hillary Clinton by a landslide.

That is independent of what happens tomorrow, because regardless of who wins, the Democratic party is going to lose.

If Bush wins, they'll be thrown into four more years of unconstructive vitriolic disarray, except this time with some blame-tossing and self-hatred thrown in. There's no obvious GOP successor at this point, so the general election is looking wide open.

If Kerry wins, it will be as the anti-Bush, not as John Kerry. At least half of his base doesn't particularly like him, they just want rid of Bush, and as soon as W is out of the picture, they'll abandon him like flies from a dried cow pie. Kerry has run a pretty divisive campaign, often belittling everyone who doesn't support him, and since that's looking to be nearly half the voting population, he can forget about extending his coalition. So, come January, and assuming he doesn't lurch left or right, Kerry's going to be trying to govern with a mandate from about 20-30% of voters. Ask Jimmy Carter how well that works.

So, come primary time in 2008, we've either got an outgoing GOP administration with no one waiting in the wings as a successor, or we've got a weakened, ineffective Democrat in office desperately trying to hold together a party who doesn't much like him. What ever will the Democrats do? Hillary to the rescue! She'll be able to sweep into the Democratic primaries, energizing the base, pulling in both the hard left who abandoned Kerry and the disillusioned folks who may have lost faith by then. Finally, a candidate Democrats will genuinely like!

Unless the GOP can put together a ticket that can somehow pull the same base numbers as a Hillary ticket, then it'll be a slaughter, probably with some pretty big coattails, too.

Look for Hillary to take on a bigger role in the Senate over the next three years (especially if Daschle loses in South Dakota), but not necessarily one fully supportive of Kerry, to start building her support early. She won't necessarily openly try to undermine Kerry (that would hurt with Democratic loyalists in the primaries), but she probably won't do all that she can to help him either.

So, that's my prediction, four years out from an election whose campaign hasn't started yet. If I'm right, people will say I'm a genius. If I'm wrong, I'll delete this post and deny everything. ;-)

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you really write that 3 years ago...? Pretty accurate!

11/28/2007 10:41 AM  
Blogger Ryan said...

Heh. I'd actually forgotten all about that post. Looks like I probably wasn't too far off, at least so far. Guess I should post a follow-up.

11/28/2007 11:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is what I've been telling my husband all along. I'm convinced Hillary will be the next President. I believe that people will vote for her because of Bill's record, but she has
a very different agenda than her husband. I'm sure she'll win, but I also believe it will be a mistake. Frankly, I don't know who to vote for this time around. Good luck, America.

2/06/2008 7:48 PM  
Blogger Ryan said...

I finally got around to posting a follow up.

2/06/2008 11:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I bet you feel stupid...

6/10/2008 3:46 PM  
Blogger Ryan said...

Stupid for a semi-wild prediction that I made nearly four years ago? Nah, I've got plenty of more recent reasons to feel stupid. :-)

6/10/2008 3:51 PM  

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